Once again, the sports world reminds us how terrible we are at making evaluations. What we see and think and feel and are sure of is so far often removed from reality. Like Nathanael, we constantly ask, “Can anything good come from Nazareth?” We are certain nothing can. We are positive we are right. We have it figured out.

Until we realize, again, we don’t.

The latest in the continuous saga of mis-predictions? Kentucky quarterback Will Levis in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bless him. He was told — by the experts — he would go first round, top ten. Some experts thought he would go top five. All of the commentators, former scouts, and draft experts were touting Levis’s name and how high up the draft board he would go. As a matter of fact, according to ESPN Analytics, there was a 92% chance Levis was going to be picked in the top ten of the draft.

Only seventeen athletes are invited to the green room of the draft. You get invited because there is an near-guaranteed your name will be called. Thirty-one selections are made in the first round, but only seventeen are invited to attend. This means camera crews, phones, journalists, reporters, etc. are everywhere. After the first couple of picks were made, all eyes (and cameras) were on Levis. Surrounded at times by his mom and sisters and other times by his girlfriend, football fans everywhere wondered when his name would be called.

The first three picks were made. Though a bit of drama, no real surprises there. Surely Levis would be next.

Fourth pick. No Levis.

Fifth pick. No Levis.

Tenth pick. No Levis.

Twentieth pick. No Levis.

Thirty-first pick. No Levis.

Of the seventeen NFL hopefuls, four were still sitting on their couches, surrounded by their loved ones, staring blankly at their phones at the end of the night. No first round draft pick for Will Levis, Georgia Tech linebacker Keion White, Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and Alabama safety Brian Branch.

The experts were wrong. The guys and gals who get paid millions and millions to predict how things will go missed it. What seemed to be a sure thing wasn’t.

As you can imagine, the internet blew up with screen shots and memes poking fun of the poor fellow who had his hopes dashed in front of millions of onlookers. Levis, and the rest of the NFL world, fell for it again. For Levis, the free fall was anything but hypothetical. There were millions of dollars lost. While the tenth pick will earn 22.6 million dollars over 4 years, Levis is now slotted to make just 9.8 million. Not chump change by any measure, but that’s still quite the letdown. I hope Levis didn’t take out an advance loan on his expected signing bonus. What appeared to be certain, wasn’t so certain after all. Can anything good come from Nazareth? (All indications say, “no way!”) Can Will Levis not get picked in the first round? (All indications say, “no way!”)

Something good did come from Nazareth.

A Second Round draft pick did await Will Levis, who was selected early in the next day of the draft by the Tennessee Titans. Levis didn’t attend the next night to hear his name called. He traveled back home Friday morning. (As an aside: To pour salt in the wound, the next morning, Levis’s flight was supposed to leave Kansas City at 10 am. He had scheduled a flight home to celebrate with family his first-round draft selection. His flight was delayed three hours. Once he finally landed, horrific traffic delayed his arrival home even further, barely making it to “celebrate” with his family.)

Though on an NFL roster, and fulfilling a dream, poor Will had a rough and embarrassing twenty-four hours. Hours the internet will not forget or forgive for a while.

We are simply bad at making predictions.

Need another quick example? Tom Brady, arguably the GOAT of NFL quarterbacks, was selected 199^th overall in round SIX of the 2000 NFL Draft. Nobody — NOBODY — thought he was any good. The experts predicted him to be a back up to the back up to the back up quarterback. Again, we were wrong.

What’s the lesson here? What can we learn? What do we need to continue to remember?

I hope it’s obvious. We are really, really, really bad at judging appearances. We are prone to place value and worth on things that we can see with our physical eyes and ears — 40 times, bench press counts, height and weight measurements, and the hype of what everyone else is saying. We are constantly guilty of thinking we really know something, when actually we don’t.  We think we are good at being God. We aren’t.

In so doing, we place unbearable expectations on others and end up crushing them in the process. In so doing, we don’t allow our Spirit-infused minds and hearts and eyes and ears to be led by God and His voice that is speaking to us. In so doing, we believe the lie that we can mask what is going on inside our hearts with our outward appearance and performance.

Were you passed over for that dream job? Did you not get into your first choice for college? Has your dating life never materialized into a long term relationship? Are your siblings more favored by your parents? Have you felt like Levis did, waiting in the green room of life for a celebration that never seems to come?

Can anything good come from Nazareth?

Because God, unlike the NFL Draft, does not measure worth as the world does. He works and acts and moves and stir in ways that exceed our imaginations. With that person. In that situation. With you.

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